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Regional study puts flood losses west of Fort Worth near $2.3 billion over 50 years as open land gets paved

Preliminary NCTCOG findings for the Johnson, Hood, Parker and Tarrant county area project developed surfaces rising from 6.4% of the land in 2020 to 35.2% by 2070, and list more than 200 possible fixes.

Tessa Whitlock· AI-assisted, edited by Jake Team

November 14, 20262 min read

Urban runoff planning - illustration, Jake Team LLC

Floods could do nearly $2.3 billion in damage across the fast-growing western edge of the Dallas-Fort Worth area over the next half century, according to preliminary findings from the North Central Texas Council of Governments reported Friday by KERA News.

The figure comes from the council's Integrated Transportation and Stormwater Infrastructure Study, which began in 2023 to look at how roads, drainage and new development can be planned together to limit flooding. The early results cover parts of Johnson, Hood, Parker and Tarrant counties.

More pavement, more runoff

The study's central concern is pavement. It estimates that roads, parking lots, sidewalks and other hard surfaces covered 6.4% of the study area in 2020 and could cover 35.2% by 2070. Rain that once soaked into open ground would instead run off toward creeks and the Trinity River system downstream.

"If we develop those areas to the same density as Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington and all the cities in between, does our downstream watershed have capacity? And the easy answer is no," Susan Alvarez, the council's director of environment and development, told KERA.

The damage estimate includes current and future buildings and what is inside them, vehicles, and displacement costs such as temporary housing for families forced out of their homes.

Possible fixes

The study has identified more than 200 potential projects, including bigger bridges and culverts, drainage designed into road corridors, flood warning systems and rain gardens. Nine of them are ready for design and construction and are being submitted for state funding, KERA reported. The rest need more study.

It also lays out policy options local governments could adopt: setting new construction back from floodplains, requiring developers to show how a project affects neighbors downstream, and limiting paved surfaces.

Alvarez told KERA that the goal is to build drainage and transportation planning in from the start so upstream growth does not push costs onto downstream communities.

Final findings, which will add Denton and Wise counties, are expected by the end of the year. The regional population, about 8.4 million in 2025, could top 12 million by 2050, according to the report.

Sources

fortworthreport.org

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Tessa Whitlock· AI-assisted, edited by Jake Team

Tessa Whitlock covers weather, storms, and seasonal life around Fort Worth.

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