Days after Texas paused new data center connections to the state grid pending an audit, the size of the gap that audit is meant to close is coming into focus.
By 2030, data centers in Texas could consume somewhere between 29 billion and 161 billion gallons of water a year. That range represents anywhere from about half a percent to nearly 3 percent of all water used in the state.
The spread is the story. A projection whose high end is more than five times its low end is not a forecast so much as a statement about how much is still unknown.
Where things stand now
Today all Texas data centers together account for less than 1 percent of state water use. Manufacturing uses about 7 percent.
The variable is cooling. A single facility using water-chilled coolant can consume up to half a billion gallons a year, while other designs use far less. Which approach a developer chooses is set at the design stage, which is why it appears on the state's audit list.
The power side
ERCOT had received requests for more than 400,000 megawatts as of April, with close to 89 percent coming from data center developers. The 248 planned projects range from 5 megawatts to 11,000 megawatts at full capacity.
Some constraints are physical rather than regulatory. Wait times for new gas turbines have reached about seven years, which limits how fast generation can be added regardless of what regulators approve.
